AME’s forecast European average spot price for the September Quarter is US$2,500/t. Further curtailments in Europe could place upward pressure on this price should additional regional supply be removed from the market.
China’s supply growth, which has offset
falls in Europe and the US to date, will face a test of its new energy control
policies as the northern hemisphere heads later in the year. Easing prices over
the remainder of the year are largely predicated on strong supply being
maintained in China.
AME’s full-year European Spot price
forecast is currently US$2,823/t. It is expected to ease further to average
US$2,750/t in 2023. Despite ongoing supply struggles in the European region,
continued supply growth in China is expected to, overall, more than offsets
this. However, this could raise concerns over material coming from ‘dirtier’
sources.
AME’s September Quarter Australia FOB
Alumina price is currently forecast at US$370/t. The steady return of
production capacity in China has kept the market well supplied.
While Russian physical aluminium metal
remains un-sanctioned and its production continues to flow, though has forced a
new reconfiguring of supply chains. Of note, China has filled the void of
Russian alumina supply from Australia after it imposed a ban. China is assumed
to simply increase its imports from Australia, to meet the increase in exports
to Russia.
Rio Tinto and Ford have signed a
non-binding global MOU to develop sustainable and secure supply chains for
battery and low-carbon materials. Under the agreement, the companies will work
together to expand the supply of low carbon aluminium for use in Ford vehicles.
This will likely focus on securing eventual metal produced using the
zero-carbon ELYSIS smelting technology at Rio Tinto’s hydro-powered operations
in Canada—essentially zero carbon aluminium metal.
Ford has made a spate of
recent agreements to secure supplies of materials critical to the energy
transition. Rio Tinto sees the agreement as an extension of its commitment to
work with customers to help realise value in decarbonising its value chains.
The MOU builds on Ford’s existing relationship with Rio Tinto as a primary
aluminium raw material source for the F-150 pick-up truck with an all-aluminium
body.
In a sign of a potential period of
greater protectionism, the European Commission has announced it will not extend
a nine-month suspension of anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese flat-rolled
aluminium exports. The move was applauded by the regional industry association,
European Aluminium (EA).
Following an anti-dumping inquiry last year, the
tariffs on Chinese flat-rolled aluminium goods have been set at 14-25% to bring
the dumping prices into market compliance and took effect on 12th July 2022.
Claims are often made that China’s
subsidised production costs lead to the dumping of high-carbon goods in other
markets. This is particularly sensitive in Europe, with the imports
undercutting the region’s European Green Deal.

