February 2023
AME forecasts hydrogen demand in North America will reach up to 43Mtpa by 2030 and 156Mtpa by 2050. This is 1.7 and 6 times respectively that of current demand in the region and ~25% of global hydrogen demand in 2050.

The current demand of hydrogen in North America is mainly driven by refineries and ammonia production ~78%. However, steel industries and energy sectors will lead the hydrogen demand in 2050 by covering around 50% of the total demand in the region.

Leaders from US, Canada and Mexico have decided to work together in six areas, including hydrogen production, methane emissions reduction during 2023 North American Leaders’ Summit. They agreed in developing a North American clean hydrogen market, including cooperation on research and development, safety codes and standards and cross-border hydrogen clusters.



In November 2021, US congress passed Bipartisan Infrastructure Law which authorised and approved US$62bn for the US Department of Energy, including US$9.5bn for clean hydrogen. The US aims to produce 10Mtpa of clean hydrogen by 2030, 20Mtpa by 2040 and 50Mtpa by 2050. Using clean hydrogen, the country aims to reduce CO2 emission approximately 10% by 2050 relative to 2005.

The US is among the global leaders to deploy hydrogen use in industries, transportation, and energy storage. The country has approximately 2.6km of dedicated hydrogen pipeline to industries. It owns more than 50 hydrogen refueling stations, more than 50,000 fuel cell trucks, 75 fuel cell buses and more than 14,000 fuel cell vehicles.  Approximately 700MW of fuel cell- based stationary back up power has been installed in the country.



Canada aims to achieve net-zero emission by 2050 forwarding ‘the hydrogen strategy for Canada in 2020’. Currently, Canada is among the top ten global producers of hydrogen, producing approximately 3Mtpa by SMR. Canada aims grow by a factor of seven to produce more than 20Mtpa of clean hydrogen by 2050. This will create 350k jobs over the next three decades.

Mexican hydrogen association estimates more than 50GW of electrolysis is necessary to meet 2.7Mtpa of country’s hydrogen demand by 2050. Most of the demand ~1.8Mtpa is expected to come from public transports. The country is expecting to have 13-15 refueling stations by 2030, 330-350 by 2040 and 440-460 by 2050. A report published by GIZ in 2021 says that Mexico will have a potential to install up to 22TW of electrolysis capacity to produce green hydrogen at an average cost of US$1.4/kg in 2050.

AME forecasts North America will be among the leaders of clean hydrogen producers by 2050 with ~20% of global hydrogen production. However, the region needs to import additional 30-40Mtpa of hydrogen to address the domestic demand.



Hydrogen Projects

Blue hydrogen will lead the low carbon hydrogen production in US. American oil and gas company ExxonMobile is building a blue hydrogen production facility in Texas, US, to produce 10Mtpa of blue hydrogen.

In January 2023, ExxonMobile awarded FEED contract to Technip Energies. The final investment decision is expected by 2024 and the production is set to begin in 2027-2028. The facility aims to capture 7Mtpa of CO2. ExxonMobil plans to pair the hydrogen facility with the largest olefins plant in the US to deliver more sustainable, lower-emissions products for customers.

American company Air Products is also building a US$4.5bn clean energy complex in Louisiana. The facility will produce 750Mcfpd of blue hydrogen. The production is expected to begin by 2026.

Bakken Energy and Mitsubishi Power are developing US$2bn clean hydrogen hub in North Dakota. The facility will produce 310ktpa of hydrogen from local feedstocks with carbon capture process by 2026.

Canada-based Nutrien Ltd. is evaluating existing Geismar, Louisiana site to produce 1.2Mtpa of clean ammonia. The project will proceed to the FEED phase, with a final investment decision expected to follow in 2023. Upon approval, the construction of ~US$2bn facility would begin in 2024 with full production expected by 2027.

Air Products is also developing ~US$1bn hydrogen energy complex in Alberta, Canada. Air products expects the hydrogen production and liquefaction will start in 2024. Upon completion the facility will produce 547ktpa of blue hydrogen.

Similarly, two Canadian companies Suncor Energy and ATCO Ltd are collaborating early-stage design and engineering for a potential clean hydrogen project near Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. The project would produce more than 300ktpa of clean hydrogen and reduces more than 2Mtpa CO2 emission.

Japanese Itochu Corporation is also building a blue ammonia and methanol production facility in Strathcona County, Canada. The facility will produce up to 1Mtpa of blue ammonia. The estimated cost of the project is US$1.2bn and the construction is expected to occur between 2024-2027.

Fortescue Future Industries will assess green hydrogen and ammonia production in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada’s eastern province. The proposed project would include wind farms, electrolysers, green ammonia production plant, and a liquid ammonia marine export terminal.

Green ammonia will be used for the domestic market and for export to Europe. The company targets up to 900ktpa of green ammonia production. 2GW of wind capacity will power the electrolysers. The ammonia production facility will have a capacity of 1.2GW.

Electrolyser manufacturer Ohmium signed an agreement in September 2022 to provide 343MW of electrolysers to Tarafert for the development of a large-scale green ammonia and urea fertilizer production facility in Mexico. The facility will be powered by solar to produce 200ktpa of green ammonia. Ohmium will deliver the first batch of electrolysers in 2025.