On the 8th of March 2022, the three-month nickel price suddenly soared to an unprecedented US$100,000/t on the London Metals Exchange (LME). This was more than double its closing price of US$42,995/t from the previous day. The sudden price movement saw the LME suspend trading of the contract.
For benchmarking purposes, a closing
price continued to be released every day but did not reflect actual market
conditions. It was not until the 16th of March that trading of the nickel
contract resumed, when almost immediately a hiccup in the IT system caused yet
another suspension between 08:00 and 14:00 as some companies were able to set
prices beyond imposed price bands—contracts signed at those prices were voided.

What Triggered the Collapse
The underlying cause of the
dramatic price movement was caused more by geo-political uncertainty and financial
manoeuvring than actual acute physical supply uncertainty. The conflict between
Russia and Ukraine placed a grim outlook for nickel, with Russia being one of
the world’s top suppliers.
In 2021, Russia was the world’s third largest
supplier of mined nickel with a total production of 250kt. Further, Russia is
also responsible for 17% of the globe’s class 1 nickel, which is a high purity nickel
of at least 99.8% grade that is used in batteries. The majority of this comes
from Nornickel (formerly Norilsk Nickel), who not only supplies nickel but also
a large volume of PGMs to the market.
While sanctions have not been
placed directly on base metals, the announcement of the expulsion of Russia
from financial transaction service SWIFT as well as other restrictions have
caused Western companies to self-sanction and, if possible, avoid Russian imports.
The unknown impact and extent of possible sanctions was the first major factor
that threw a lot of immediate confusion and insecurities for future nickel
supply.

Another source of insecurity was
the continued dwindling volume of nickel left in stock. As of March 2022, only
72.5kt of nickel was reported in LME stockpiles, though the Class 1 nickel the
index tracks only accounts for a relatively small segment of the market.
The apparent final straw for the
nickel price, sending the market over the edge were the short bets made by
Tsingshan Group—the world’s largest nickel and stainless-steel producer. The
company has a history of taking short positions on nickel futures on the LME, anticipating
the nickel price will go down. In rushing to cover these shorts by purchasing
contracts, Tsingshan and other traders caused a surge in nickel prices.
The company was left with an
outstanding short position of approximately US$8bn (~100kt of nickel), which would
have to be paid off either in cash or physical deliveries. Making physical delivery
would be difficult as the LME only accepts class 1 nickel against its contracts
in the form of cathode, plates and briquettes, while Tsingshan mainly produces
low grade nickel pig iron for its stainless-steel mills. The company released a
statement stating they had reached a standstill arrangement with hedge bank
creditors until they could arrange financing to settle its outstanding margin
calls.
The Aftermath
When nickel trading resumed on
the 16th of March, more than a week after the suspension, a 5% pricing limit
was implemented either side of the closing price of the previous day. This
pricing band was gradually relaxed to 15% as market conditions stabilised.
When
the daily closing price reached either the upper limit or lower limit, it was
classified as a price disruption event, this happened for six days before
market fluctuations eventually subsided. Pricing of the metal over the last
week of March suggests nickel settled at a short-term equilibrium between
US$30,000 and US$35,000/t, but how long this lasts remains to be seen.
Off the exchange floor, traders
are struggling to place a price on the metal. The LME price has historically been
used as the benchmark for physical settlements, yet the recent disruptions,
their management and fallout, customers are walking away from contracts as they
lose confidence in its representation of the market.
Further, during the period
of trading suspension, deliveries were still being negotiated for companies who
needed the physical metal, while at the same time it was agreed that the
disrupted, frozen price was not an accurate reflection of the market and thus no
new purchases were being made. Some producers were also already considering
stopping production in the face of skyrocketing gas prices.
The UK’s Financial Conduct
Authority and the Bank of England have announced that they will conduct an
investigation of the events leading to the price suspension and evaluate LME’s
approach in handling the trade suspension and resumption. The regulators are
especially concerned about the level of transparency in the market. The LME itself
has also announced that it would commission an independent party to carry out
its own investigation, and that it welcomes any feedback that would help
improve its market structure.
Unfortunately for the LME, this
commotion has caused many to rethink the exchange’s role and importance in the
metals trading market. Its continual reliance on the open outcry pit, in which
traders negotiate by shouting and using hand signals, is believed to be an
outdated method, even though the CEO of LME argues that this system in fact
protects mining companies from outrageous fluctuations.
An alternative platform is the
Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Following the events on the LME, nickel
contract prices also increased by the maximum daily limit allowed on the SHFE
for several consecutive days, leading to the suspension of over half of these
contracts. Yet unlike the LME, trading quickly resumed due to the comparatively
smaller volume of nickel trades that are processed on China’s primary exchange.
SHFE futures contracts are set
to monthly instead of the three months that is used on the LME, while trading
can take place for a minimum of one tonne of nickel compared to the LME’s six
tonnes. Pricing limits on the SHFE are also restricted to a 4% difference from
that of the previous day. However, apart from Chinese traders, only qualified
foreign investors are allowed on the SHFE, and all trading is made in yuan. The
application process can take several months for approval as international
traders have to submit records of their previous credits and experience in the
futures market.
Everything is Better at Home
As the global demand for
environmentally friendly EVs continues to grow, so will nickel demand. Yet this
price volatility, combined with recent geopolitical tensions from the Russia
Ukraine conflict, have made many countries re-evaluate the security of their
nickel imports.
For example, the Canadian
government will be partnering with several companies including Electra,
Glencore and Talon Metals to conduct a feasibility study on the construction of
an integrated battery materials park in Ontario processing local resources.
This initiative was proposed with the intent of reducing the carbon footprint
of nickel by minimising transportation required between the mines and
refineries, while also reducing Canada’s dependency on other countries as the
whole supply chain becomes domestic.
The Australian government
has also recently granted Ardea Resources’ Kalgoorlie nickel project a Major
Project Status to fast-track its development and construction. Since Western
Australia has been identified to contain several rich nickel sulphide deposits,
allocating more funding into bringing these projects online would give
Australia a secure source of domestic nickel supply.